Pandemic hit short-term cancer survival in Wales, stats reveal

Short-term cancer survival in Wales was significantly affected during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic but showed signs of recovery by 2021, new data from Public Health Wales reveals.

Figures published by the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit show the percentage of people surviving one year after a cancer diagnosis dropped to 71.9 per cent in 2020. This was followed by a recovery to 75.2 per cent in 2021, approaching pre-pandemic levels.

However, the data also confirms that the steady improvement in one-year cancer survival rates had already levelled off several years before the pandemic hit.

The report highlights that five-year cancer survival, which stood at 63.1 per cent for those diagnosed between 2017 and 2021, has not improved since the 2014–2018 period, ending decades of steady gains.

Differences in survival vary depending on the type of cancer. Lung cancer survival, for example, has not bounced back as strongly as other common cancers since the pandemic. For bowel cancer, five-year survival stood at 66.0 per cent in the least deprived areas, compared with 49.1 per cent in the most deprived—a widening of the previous gap.

The data reveals long-standing and persistent inequalities. Among patients diagnosed between 2017 and 2021, five-year survival was 70.1 per cent in the least deprived communities, but just 51.8 per cent in the most deprived—virtually unchanged since the 2002–2006 period.

Improvements in longer-term survival are also uneven. Ten-year lung cancer survival in the least deprived areas rose from 8.3 per cent to 14.7 per cent, but in the most deprived areas only increased slightly, from 6.8 per cent to 8.5 per cent.

Professor Dyfed Wyn Huws, director of the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit, described the findings as concerning.

“The inequalities in Wales’ cancer survival – that are widening in some cases – are troubling,” he said.

“Also of concern is that despite many decades of steady improvement in overall cancer survival, several years before the pandemic it stopped significantly improving. However, after cancer survival in Wales dipped early in the pandemic, it is encouraging that cancer survival was already improving for many types of cancer by 2021.”

The Unit, part of Public Health Wales, compiles population-wide cancer data from NHS and other sources to international standards, enabling Wales to take part in major international studies on cancer survival.

According to Professor Huws, past international comparisons showed Wales had poorer cancer outcomes than many similar countries, but work is ongoing to address that.

“Fortunately, we also researched what was behind this, and they are all being tackled: earlier diagnosis through better symptom awareness, and improved access to GP surgeries and diagnostic tests,” he said.

“Improved and prompt availability to existing and new effective treatments are also important. And it’s essential that people in deprived communities and vulnerable groups are not left behind.”

He added that up to 40 per cent of cancer cases may be preventable, stressing the importance of cancer screening, vaccination programmes, and addressing the root causes of health inequalities.